NJ Commercial Lending

The “National Association of Realtors” recently released September’s numbers. Existing home sales have fallen to their worst levels in 16 years and are seeing the largest decline in property values since 1999. This strikes me as odd. They didn’t start keeping these records until 1999.

The National Foreclosure Ranking Service released its September 2007 “U.S. Foreclosure Market Report” showed a decrease from the previous month (August). It looks like smoke and mirrors to me. Foreclosure filings have increased 99% since this time last year.

According to the National Mortgage Bankers Association, 2007 mortgage origination will end 17% lower than 2006 levels while 2008 volume is projected to drop an additional 18% from this year.  Read more...

So all the economists and financial experts in the Wall Street Journal crowd have finally reached a consensus on the time frame in which the real estate bubble will deflate. They say it will be a “slow leak.” Oh really? I don’t know were they live but you and I are forced to live right here in the real world.

Not quite a month ago, the former Fed Chairmen Alan Greenspan (here’s another genius) was quoted as saying, “the worst may well be over.” Who’s more ambiguous than he is? (my guess is nobody). The “worst” looks more like a scene from The Terminator when machines take over the world and they’re marching over the bones and debris… an overstatement? Maybe, but let’s look at the facts.  Read more...

RealtyTrac(TM) released its US Foreclosure Report this week showing that 318,355 properties nationwide had entered some stage of foreclosure during the 3rd quarter of 2006. The THIRD QUARTER! That is a 17% increase from the previous quarter and a 43% increase from the 3rd quarter 2005. That is a national foreclosure rate of one Lis Pendens filed for every 363 households in the US.

Mortgage industry experts are saying that higher interest rates and a soft real estate market are the two key contributing factors. These people are brilliant.  Read more...

According to the “National Association of Realtors”(TM), pending sales of existing homes are expected to “hold steady” in the months ahead. BIG surprise there. Pending home sales based on contracts signed in September fell 1.1%. This doesn’t sound too terrible but, they make no mention of the fact that it remains 13.6% below the levels from September 2005.  Read more...

Last week Freddie Mac released the third quarter results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey. I find enormous insight into the direction of the economy by tracking the direction of interest rates. They show you where we were, where we are and where we’re heading.

The 30 year fixed rate mortgage average was 6.33% for the week ending Nov. 9, 2006 up from the previous week’s average of 6.31%. At this time last year the 30 year fixed averaged 6.36%. So, what’s the point? These trends in mortgage rates and their subtle movements are reminiscent of the 1990’s (can anybody say “stagflation?”). Economics 101 tells us that Stagflation is simply put, stagnant growth combined with rising inflation pressures.  Read more...