So all the economists and financial experts in the Wall Street Journal crowd have finally reached a consensus on the time frame in which the real estate bubble will deflate. They say it will be a “slow leak.” Oh really? I don’t know were they live but you and I are forced to live right here in the real world.
Not quite a month ago, the former Fed Chairmen Alan Greenspan (here’s another genius) was quoted as saying, “the worst may well be over.” Who’s more ambiguous than he is? (my guess is nobody). The “worst” looks more like a scene from The Terminator when machines take over the world and they’re marching over the bones and debris… an overstatement? Maybe, but let’s look at the facts.
It’s important to spend a few minutes to talk about the use of “Stated Income” Commercial Loans. There is so much misinformation regarding this type of mortgage program that it just needs to be cleared up once and for all.
RealtyTrac(TM) released its US Foreclosure Report this week showing that 318,355 properties nationwide had entered some stage of foreclosure during the 3rd quarter of 2006. The THIRD QUARTER! That is a 17% increase from the previous quarter and a 43% increase from the 3rd quarter 2005. That is a national foreclosure rate of one Lis Pendens filed for every 363 households in the US.
According to the “National Association of Realtors”(TM), pending sales of existing homes are expected to “hold steady” in the months ahead. BIG surprise there. Pending home sales based on contracts signed in September fell 1.1%. This doesn’t sound too terrible but, they make no mention of the fact that it remains 13.6% below the levels from September 2005. 
Last week Freddie Mac released the third quarter results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey. I find enormous insight into the direction of the economy by tracking the direction of interest rates. They show you where we were, where we are and where we’re heading.
